|By Thure de Thulstrup - website of the Old Print Shop, New York City, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6728114|
A week or two ago I watched Lex Fridman interview Eric Weinstein, and Lex asked if Eric thought we would have another civil war. Weinstein replied that he believes we are already in a revolution. Historians often don't label the start of a war or give it a name until much after the fact.
I think yes, we are in a low grade civil war. It started the day George Floyd was killed by a policeman and has only escalated since. Both sides have become increasingly strident and their activities have become increasingly "direct." City centers and business districts have been burned, police officers have been assassinated, and the Capitol building has been ransacked in an apparent attempt to overthrow Congress and overturn an election. Now the capital city is occupied by tens of thousands of soldiers.
It's a war, Civil War II.
Power is about to be transferred to the Democratic Party, so they control the military, and therefore have the upper hand. But they have a problem in that the military is fundamentally conservative, like over 80% by most estimates, and the Democrats show every sign of instituting policies that are sure to infuriate the conservative part of American society. They have already signaled the intention to disarm their political opponents with very strict gun control laws and purge the military of right-wing conservatives. I expect them to also try to purge the civil service.
In my opinion, the Democrats do not have sufficient mandate from the voters to do these things, nor are they likely to accomplish anything other than provoke even stronger resentment and violent resistance, but they are treating all criticism as sedition right now. They certainly aren't listening to moderate voices.
There may be no battles with tanks rolling across the countryside, but I think we can expect talk of secession to increase very soon. My guess is that a flashpoint will blaze up at the next mid-term elections in 2022. If Republicans are not able to regain at least one branch of Congress, it's going to be "game on" for the break-up of the country.